Integrity Polling

Analysis

Writing that shows its work

Explainers on how polling works, post-mortems on how it fails, and findings from our releases. Every chart links to the data behind it.

Articles

Latest Sample Third partiesQuestion design

The word “other” is doing a lot of work

When a poll names two candidates and buckets the rest, it is not simplifying the race. It is changing the question.

Integrity Polling research staff · Methods

· 3 min read

9%

of likely voters in our demonstration ballot test chose a candidate who would be “other” in most polls

  • Sample UncertaintyExplainer

    A margin of error is a promise, not a shrug

    “Within the margin of error” is the most misused phrase in election coverage. Here is what ±3.4 points actually commits us to.

    ±3.4 points on each candidate's share means roughly ±6.8 on the gap between two of them

    Integrity Polling research staff · Methods

    · 3 min read

  • Sample Response ratesWeighting

    What a four percent response rate actually does to a poll

    Single-digit response rates are not a scandal. Hiding them is. Here is what they change, what they don't, and what we do about it.

    36% → 6% Pew Research Center's reported telephone response rate, 1997 to 2018

    Integrity Polling research staff · Methods

    · 3 min read

Email alerts

New analysis by email

Methods explainers and post-mortems, a few times a quarter. Never more than one email a week.