Key findings
The race is close, and we say so. Delgado’s four-point edge among likely voters is only slightly larger than the poll’s ±3.4-point margin of sampling error, which applies to each candidate’s share. The margin on the difference between two candidates is roughly twice that. The honest summary is “Delgado narrowly ahead, within the range where a different sample could show a tie,” not “Delgado leads.”
Nine percent of likely voters chose a candidate other than the two major-party nominees. Alicia Park’s 7 percent is more than the gap between the leaders. A poll that offered only Delgado and Reed and bucketed everyone else as “other” would have hidden the single most consequential fact about this race: the outcome likely depends on where Park’s voters land, or whether they stay with her.
Independents are the swing, and they are not undecided so much as unaligned. Among independent and other registrants, 15 percent back Park and 10 percent are undecided. Both candidates have more room to grow with this group than with their own partisans, who are already north of 85 percent consolidated.
The geography is familiar. Delgado leads by 26 in metro counties, the two are close in the suburbs, and Reed leads by 28 in rural counties. Nothing in the regional pattern is surprising, which is one reason we flag it: when the geography of a poll looks like the geography of the last election, the sample is at least plausible.
What to notice about this release
This page exists to show the template, not to inform a real campaign. Everything we promise in the Integrity Standard is on this page:
- The methodology box lists field dates, sample size, mode mix, sampling frame, weighting targets, response rate, and margin of error, with the design effect included.
- Every question appears below exactly as it was read, in the order it was asked, including the screener that defines “likely voter.”
- Every ballot-qualified candidate is named in the question and in the chart. Nobody is “other” unless they are not on the ballot.
- The crosstabs are downloadable as a CSV with unweighted sample sizes for every column.
- After the election this poll would be graded on the Scorecard, with the signed error on the Delgado–Reed margin and on each minor-party share.