Key findings
Trust is local. Fifty-eight percent of adults trust the officials who run elections in their own community a great deal or quite a lot. That is twenty points higher than trust in the Supreme Court and forty points higher than trust in Congress. People trust what they can see.
Thirty-eight percent say neither party represents them. That is the plurality position. It is also the plurality among adults under 50, and it reaches three in four among independents. In most horse-race polling these people are visible only as “undecided” or “other.” Measuring them directly is the point of this index.
Polls are trusted slightly more than the press and far less than local government. We include our own industry in the battery on purpose. At 29 percent, public opinion polling has a trust problem that this firm exists to address, and we will publish this number every quarter whether it rises or falls.
The index moves slowly, by design. A composite of nine institutions damps the quarter-to-quarter noise that any one item shows. In the illustrative series above, no wave-to-wave change exceeds two points. When a real wave moves the index by more than its standard error of about 0.9 points, we will say so, and when it does not, we will say that too.
How the index is built
The Institutional Trust Index is the unweighted mean of nine 0–100 institution scores. Each institution is scored from the five-point trust question (none at all = 0, very little = 25, some = 50, quite a lot = 75, a great deal = 100). We publish every component so you can rebuild the index yourself, or build a different one, from the crosstab file. The Representation Index combines the party-representation question with its intensity follow-up, so that someone who “somewhat strongly” feels represented counts for less than someone who feels it “very strongly.” Full construction notes are on the Tracker page.